2025 MLB Rookie Tracker
Welcome to my 2025 MLB rookie tracker! I did this last year for the first time and have been looking forward to covering the rookie landscape once again. The concept of the rookie tracker is simple - keep a close eye on minor league ballplayers on the cusp of making their debuts, as well as tracking the rookie of the year races in both the American and National leagues. This will include anything from power rankings, to spring training updates, or to debut breakdowns.
As I did with my 2024 rookie tracker, my introductory post will consist of breaking down my three tiers of rookies heading into the 2025 season:
Tier 1 - Impact rookies
Tier 2 - Upcoming
Tier 3 - 50/50s
There is a certain criteria for each tier. First of all, for each tier every player of course has to currently have rookie eligibility or have yet to make their MLB debut. Because rookie eligibility can be confusing at times, here’s a reminder on what determines if a player is rookie eligible or not. For position players, they need to have less than 150 at-bats heading into the new season, and for pitchers, less than 50 innings pitched. Also, those numbers become void if a player has more than 45 service days spent on an active 26-man roster. Those 45 days do not include any time spent on a roster after rosters expand in September. This is important to know, because tier one consists of rookies that have already debuted.
Now the reason tier one is called the “impact rookie” tier is because these players actually spent enough time at the big league level to make an impact. To earn a spot in this tier, while retaining rookie eligibility, a player must have at least 50 plate appearances or 25 innings pitched. The final piece of criteria for tier one is that a player must be projected by Fangraph’s Roster Resource to be on an active 26-man roster come opening day.
For the second tier, there are only two pieces of criteria. The first is that the player must be a top 100 prospect by either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America. Last year, I used just MLB Pipeline, and figured opening it up to Baseball America’s ranking as well would help to add a greater pool of players. The other piece of criteria is that the player must be on a 40-man roster. If a player is a top 100 prospect and on a 40-man roster, it’s safe to say that prospect is “upcoming.” This tier can include recently debuted players as well, but they can not have exceeded 50 plate appearances or 25 innings pitched at the big league level.
For the final tier - 50/50s - there are three pieces of criteria. The first is that the player must be a top 100 prospect, once again, by either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America. The second piece of criteria is that they need to have received a non-roster invite to spring training. The final piece of criteria is that they have to have reached Double-A as of the end of 2024. The reason this tier is called the “50/50” tier is because players that fit into this tier are likely players that have a 50/50 shot at making their debut in 2025. Whether they are making their debut at the beginning of the year with an opportunity to shake up the Rookie of the Year race, or debuting at the end of the season, I want to track all debuts, especially for top 100 prospects. If they have reached Double-A and are at big league camp in the spring, it’s safe to say the organization has aspirations of seeing that player in a big league uniform at some point. With all of this said, here are the players in each tier.
Tier 1 - Impact Rookies
(Stats are from time in MLB)
2B/DH Will Wagner (TOR): 86 PA, .305/.337/.451, 125 wRC+
3B Jace Jung (DET): 94 PA, .241/.362/.304, 102 wRC+
SS Trey Sweeney (DET): 119 PA, .218/.269/.373, 81 wRC+
LHP Brant Hurter (DET): 45.1 IP, 2.58 ERA, 21.7 K%, 3.4 BB%
2B/SS Brooks Baldwin (CHW): 121 PA, .211/.250/.316, 58 wRC+
SS Jacob Wilson (ATH): 103 PA, .250/.314/.315, 86 wRC+
1B/DH Austin Shenton (SEA): 50 PA, .214/.340/.405, 120 wRC+
OF Griffin Conine (MIA): 89 PA, .268/.326/.451, 114 wRC+
3B Eric Wagaman (MIA): 74 PA, .250/.270/.403, 86 wRC+
OF Dylan Crews (WSH): 132 PA, .218/.288/.353, 80 wRC+
1B/DH Tyler Black (MIL): 57 PA, .204/.316/.245, 68 wRC+
2B Thomas Saggese (STL): 52 PA, .204/.250/.306, 57 wRC+
2B Hyeseong Kim (LAD-KBO): 567 PA, .326/.383/.458, 118 wRC+
RHP Roki Sasaki (LAD-NPB): 111.0 IP, 2.35 ERA, 28.7 K%, 7.1 BB%
Nothing crazy should stick out about this section. Perhaps the biggest name on this list is Roki Sasaki who isn’t your typical prospect/rookie. Aside from Sasaki, Dylan Crews is your only “big name” rookie. What separates this tier from the second and third tier is the lack of top 100 prospects. For that reason, I like this section a lot, because this is your gold mine for dark horse Rookie of the Year candidates.
Tier 2 - Upcoming
(Stats are from combined 2024 MiLB, including players that have debuted. Level is highest level reached.)
3B/1B Coby Mayo (BAL-MLB): 406 PA, 25 HR, 4 SB, .293/.372/.592, 145 wRC+
RHP Jackson Jobe (DET-MLB): 91.2 IP, 2.36 ERA, 25.6 K%, 12.0 BB%
OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN-AAA): 209 PA. 9 HR. 9 SB, .280/.459/.567, 184 wRC+
RHP Sean Burke (CHW-MLB): 71.2 IP, 4.77 ERA, 33.0 K%, 13.1 BB%
LHP Fraser Ellard (CHW-MLB): 40.2 IP, 3.76 ERA, 33.5 K%, 11.4 BB%
RHP Prelander Berroa (CHW-MLB): 46.1 IP, 6.41 ERA, 22.5 K%, 16.1 BB%
SS Colson Montgomery (CHW-AAA): 573 PA, 18 HR, 8 SB, .214/.329/.381, 88 wRC+
RHP Caden Dana (LAA-MLB): 135.2 IP, 2.52 ERA, 27.4 K%, 7.3 BB%
RHP Kumar Rocker (TEX-MLB): 36.2 IP, 1.96 ERA, 39.6 K%, 3.6 BB%
C Jeferson Quero (MIL-AAA): 381 PA, 16 HR, 5 SB, .262/.339/.440, 107 wRC+
RHP Tink Hence (STL-AA): 79.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 34.1 K%, 8.1 BB%
2B/3B/SS Matt Shaw (CHC-AAA): 523 PA, 21 HR, 31 SB, .284/.379/.488, 146 wRC+
OF Kevin Alcantara (CHC-MLB): 473 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, .278/.353/.428, 124 wRC+
OF Owen Caissie (CHC-AAA): 549 PA, 19 HR, 11 SB, .278/.375/.472, 121 wRC+
RHP Rhett Lowder (CIN-MLB): 108.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 25.3 K%, 5.4 BB%
SS Jordan Lawlar (ARI-MLB): 104 PA, 2 HR, 6 SB, .318/.417/.482, 132 wRC+
I believe this tier is where you are going to find your safest Rookie of the Year selections. Most of these players are more likely to spend more time in the big leagues than players in tier three, and are also higher profile players than the players in tier one. Jackson Jobe feels like the favorite in this section for the American League, but Caden Dana and Kumar Rocker are two more AL pitchers likely to get a hefty amount of starts and give Jobe a run for his money. Coby Mayo and Colson Montgomery both can shake up the race as well if their respective teams give them enough run. On the National League side, Matt Shaw should be the favorite from this group, especially if he wins Chicago’s third baseman job out of spring training. Rhett Lowder is another pitcher to keep an eye out for as well after an impressive six start debut.
Tier 3 - 50/50s
(Stats are combined 2024 MiLB. Level is highest level reached.)
C/1B Samuel Basallo (BAL-AAA): 532 PA, 19 HR, 10 SB, .278/.341/.449, 122 wRC+
1B Xavier Isaac (TB-AA): 435 PA, 18 HR, 15 SB, .264/.370/.480, 143 wRC+
1B/OF Tre Morgan (TB-AA): 437 PA, 10 HR, 20 SB, .324/.408/.483, 158 wRC+
3B/SS Brayden Taylor (TB-AA): 508 PA, 20 HR, 29 SB, .250/.365/.493, 144 wRC+
SS Carson Williams (TB-AAA): 505 PA, 20 HR. 33 SB, .256/.352/.469, 142 wRC+
2B/SS/OF Kristian Campbell (BOS-AAA): 517 PA, 20 HR, 24 SB, .330/.439/.558, 180 wRC+
SS Marcelo Mayer (BOS-AA): 335 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .307/.370/.480, 142 wRC+
OF Roman Anthony (BOS-AAA): 540 PA, 18 HR, 21 SB, .291/.396/.498, 149 wRC+
OF Chase DeLauter (CLE-AAA): 164 PA, 8 HR, 1 SB, .261/.341/.500, 129 wRC+
C Carter Jensen (KC-AA): 546 PA, 18 HR, 17 RBI, .259/.359/.450, 129 wRC+
C Edgar Quero (CHW-AAA): 402 PA, 16 HR, 1 SB, .280/.366/.463, 139 wRC+
C Kyle Teel (CHW-AAA): 505 PA, 13 HR, 12 SB, .288/.386/.433, 134 wRC+
LHP Noah Schultz (CHW-AA): 88.1 IP, 2.24 ERA, 32.1 K%, 6.7 BB%
2B Christian Moore (LAA-AA): 110 PA, 6 HR, 2 SB, .347/.400/.584, 184 wRC+
3B Cam Smith (HOU-AA): 134 PA, 7 HR, 2 SB, .313/.396/.609, 179 wRC+
1B Nick Kurtz (ATH-AA): 50 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .368/.520/.763, 230 wRC+
OF Colby Thomas (ATH-AAA): 575 PA, 31 HR, 15 SB, .277/.342/.563, 131 wRC+
C Harry Ford (SEA-AA): 523 PA, 7 HR, 35 SB, .249/.377/.367, 119 wRC+
SS Cole Young (SEA-AA): 552 PA, 9 HR, 23 SB, .271/.369/.390, 119 wRC+
SS Sebastian Walcott (TEX-AA): 515 PA, 11 HR, 27 SB, .265/.344/.452, 125 wRC+
C Drake Baldwin (ATL-AAA): 551 PA, 16 HR, 2 SB, .276/.370/.423, 119 wRC+
SS Aidan Miller (PHI-AA): 462 PA, 11 HR, 23 SB, .261/.366/.446, 133 wRC+
OF Justin Crawford (PHI-AA): 497 PA, 9 HR, 42 SB, .313/.360/.444, 130 wRC+
RHP Andrew Painter (PHI-AA): 103.2 IP, 1.56 ERA, 38.7 K%, 6.2 BB%
RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL-AAA): 97.1 IP, 3.33 ERA, 30.5 K%, 14.4 BB%
LHP Quinn Matthews (STL-AAA): 143.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 35.4 K%, 8.6 BB%
C Moises Ballasteros (CHC-AAA): 508 PA, 19 HR, 1 SB, .289/.354/.471, 127 wRC+
2B/3B James Triantos (CHC-AAA): 485 PA, 7 HR, 47 SB, .300/.346/.427, 123 wRC+
RHP Cade Horton (CHC-AAA): 34.1 IP, 4.46 ERA, 28.0 K%, 9.1 BB%
2B Termarr Johnson (PIT-AA): 544 PA, 15 HR, 22 SB, .237/.366/.386, 121 wRC+
RHP Bubba Chandler (PIT-AAA): 119.2 IP, 3.08 ERA, 30.9 K%, 8.6 BB%
RHP Thomas Harrington (PIT-AAA): 117.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 25.1 K%, 4.1 BB%
SS Edwin Arroyo (CIN-AA): 554 PA, 13 HR, 29 SB, .252/.324/.433, 110 wRC+
RHP Chase Petty (CIN-AAA): 137.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 22.4 K%, 10.2 BB%
C Dalton Rushing (LAD-AAA): 503 PA, 26 HR, 2 SB, .271/.384/.512, 142 wRC+
SS Alex Freeland (LAD-AAA): 615 PA, 18 HR, 31 SB, .260/.387/.442, 132 wRC+
LHP Jackson Ferris (LAD-AA): 126.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 27.4 K%, 10.8 BB%
1B Bryce Eldridge (SFG-AAA): 519 PA, 23 HR, 6 SB, .289/.372/.513, 137 wRC+
C Ethan Salas (SDP-AA): 469 PA, 4 HR, 10 SB, .206/.288/.311, 75 wRC+
RHP Chase Dollander (COL-AA): 118.0 IP, 2.59 ERA, 33.9 K%, 9.4 BB%
This is obviously your largest tier, and tier with the most talent. “50/50s” can be a little misleading because that’s not to say all of these players have a 50% shot at making a big league roster by the end of the season. Rather, I would say 50% of these players have a shot. There’s plenty of players on this list that will debut this year, if not on opening day. Boston’s Kristian Campbell immediately comes to mind, especially considering Boston’s second base job is up for grabs and Campbell was arguably the best hitter in minor league baseball in 2024. Edgar Quero might be my favorite player in this section and it is very likely that he may end up with the full-time catching job on the Southside of Chicago before the end of the season. Of course there are a few players on here with outside shots at debuting in 2025 despite their non-roster invites to spring training.
