What will Anthony Santander provide for the Toronto Blue Jays?
If you’ve kept up with the Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason (really the last two offseasons), you are aware of the fact that the outlook for them moving forward hasn’t been great considering their inability to land top free agents that they seemingly have been very much in on. Fortunately for Toronto, they took a step in the right direction on Monday by signing Anthony Santander, switch-hitting slugger and now former Baltimore Oriole. The deal is for five years and is worth $92.5 million which includes an opt-out following the 2027 season and a club option following the 2029 season to tack on another year. Santander’s contract will take him through his age 34 season.
During his time in Baltimore, Santander established himself as one of the premier power hitters in the game. He debuted in 2017 at the age of 22, but it wasn’t until the 2022 season that he really put up his first full season with all-star caliber numbers. Since the start of 2022, Santander’s slash line is .244/.317/.478, good for a .795 OPS and a 124 wRC+. He has hit 105 home runs in that time frame which ranks sixth among big league sluggers. 2024 was his best season to date and earned his first all-star nod. Over 665 plate appearances, he hit a career high 44 home runs with a line of .235/.308/.506, good for a .785 OPS and a 129 wRC+. Among qualified outfielders, he ranked top five in home runs, RBIs, and SLG, en route to a career high 3.3 fWAR.
Santander’s bat is obviously the premier part of his game as he doesn’t provide a whole lot elsewhere. His ability to hit at an above average level from both sides of the plate is really where he finds his value. In 180 plate appearances from the right side in 2024, he posted a 123 wRC+ while from the left side, he had a 132 wRC+ over 485 plate appearances. His offensive profile is pretty fun as he swings in and out of the zone at an above average rate, but also makes contact in and out of the zone at an above average rate as well. Both traits are somewhat uncharacteristic of a power hitter of his caliber, but he makes it work. As a matter of fact, Santander hit ten home runs on pitches outside of the strike zone, which was the most in baseball. Rafael Devers had the second most with just seven. I believe players hold on to their contact skills longer than they do their raw power, so Santander’s offensive game may age better than it’s given credit for.
What does concern me about Santander is the lack of track record. Although he has a solid offensive profile that may project well, it wasn’t until his sixth season in the big leagues that he put up A) a 150+ game season, and B) a full season with a wRC+ north of 100. That leads me to wonder how long he can sustain this level of success if he does indeed stick to his approach. He did post a career high FB% in 2024 (54.8) which bodes well, but if his power tapers off, he may want to switch to a more patient approach and boost his BB% up to 10.0%. Given how much contact he makes, he should be posting a higher OBP. He also struggled with fastballs in 2024 while hitting everything else very well. If he does switch his sights in zone more, but continues to struggle to get to the high heat, you might see that K% that he has kept pretty moderate for a power hitter start to climb. It’s more likely than not that Santander continues to produce at an above average rate for at least the next two or three years, but these are just a few red flags that I can see posing a problem in the future.
Where does Santander fit into Toronto’s roster? Well it looks like he’ll stick to a corner outfield spot and likely share some DH time with George Springer and Will Wagner. Most of Santander’s time in the field is spent in right field where he performs at a serviceable level, but does have some time in left under his belt as well. In the lineup, he’ll without a doubt slot into the three or four hole behind some kind of combination of George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Bo Bichette. Guerrero hit third for a majority of 2024, but given how much he is getting on base, I personally would move him up to the two hole and have Santander hit behind him with either Springer or Bichette leading off. Regardless, Santander will be found right in the middle of this lineup that was in desperate need of more pop. As a team in 2024, they ranked 26th in home runs and 20th in SLG. If the Jays want to climb back into contention before this current window seemingly closes, they need to hit for more power in a loaded AL East. Santander provides just that.
