Jeff Hoffman is the newest member of the Blue Jays bullpen

The 2024-25 MLB offseason continues to press on as we approach the one month countdown until Spring Training. There’s still some notable names left on the board, and one found a new home - or I should say is returning home - on Friday night. Right handed relief pitcher Jeff Hoffman and the Toronto Blue Jays came to an agreement on a three year contract worth $33M which will take him through his age 34 season. The now former Philadelphia Phillie was originally drafted by the Blue Jays as the 9th overall pick in the 2014 draft out of East Carolina University. However, Hoffman never saw big league action in Toronto as he was sent to Colorado in the trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Jays. He would debut with the Rockies in 2016 where he struggled mightily, getting time in and out of the starting rotation and the bullpen until he ended up with the Cincinnati Reds in 2021. It wasn’t until he joined the Phillies in 2023 where he really made a name for himself as one of the top relievers in the game. Here are his numbers in his two seasons in Philadelphia:

122 G, 118.2 IP, 2.28 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, .178 BAA, 33.4 K%, 26.0 K-BB%, 11 SV, 32 HLD, 3.6 fWAR

Among qualified relievers since the start of 2023, Hoffman ranks top 10 in ERA, FIP, WHIP, K-BB%, and fWAR. The only other reliever to rank top 10 in each of those categories was Felix Bautista who only has half the innings Hoffman has in that time frame. Hoffman made his first All-Star team in 2024 after a stellar first half in which he posted a 1.12 ERA over 40.1 innings. He came back down to Earth in the second half, but still put together one of the best reliever seasons in 2024:

68 G, 66.1 IP, 2.17 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, .195 BAA, 33.6 K%, 27.5 K-BB%, 10 SV, 21 HLD, 2.0 fWAR

Hoffman finds success in his four-pitch arsenal in which he deploys a 4-seam fastball, a slider, a splitter, and a sinker. The fastball, slider, and splitter all yield whiff rates north of 30% while it’s the slider which he throws most that has a 45.2% whiff rate. All of his pitches do a great job of limiting hard contact as well, as his slider, splitter, and sinker all have xwOBA’s below .300 and xBA’s below .200. Perhaps what is most encouraging about Hoffman’s profile is the success of his 4-seam in 2024. It was the first season in his entire career in which his 4-seam had a positive run value (4.7). The 30.8 whiff% on the pitch was also a career high. Finally getting the fastball to work made the rest of his arsenal, which was already really good, even better. For that reason, we have every reason to believe Hoffman can sustain this level of success in 2025.

Despite a career renaissance in the last two seasons, Hoffman does appear to be coming with some injury risk. The Baltimore Orioles also had a three year offer on the table for him, this one worth $40M, but they ended up backing out of the deal due to some concerns in his physical. He spent time on the IL in both 2018 and 2021 due to shoulder problems which was flagged by the Orioles in their physical assessment of him. For that reason, the Blue Jays were able to land him, seemingly at a discount.

Hoffman joins a bullpen in Toronto that had 28 different arms appear out of relief and simply put, was one of the worst in baseball in 2024. They ranked dead last in fWAR (-2.5) and second to last in ERA (4.82). After non-tendering former closer Jordan Romano, it looks like Hoffman may step into the closer role for Toronto. In his career in high leverage situations, Hoffman has a 1.86 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, .186 BAA, and a 27.2 K-BB%, seemingly making him the man for the job.