Alex Bregman and the Boston Red Sox in agreement on a three year contract
The Boston Red Sox put an exclamation point on an impressive offseason Wednesday night by signing the best remaining free agent on the market, Alex Bregman. The three year deal is worth $120M with an opt-out following both the 2025 and 2026 seasons. If he declines his opt-outs, this deal will take Bregman through his age 33 season.
Following the 2024 season, the idea of Bregman returning to Houston was seemingly a foregone conclusion, but as the offseason dragged on and Bregman wasn’t receiving any offers north of the $200M mark that him and his agent Scott Boras were looking for, a reunion in Houston started to seem like it could be a reality. From the beginning of the offseason, the Red Sox seemed like potential favorites while the Tigers, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Yankees were all in play as well. At the end of the day, Boston was where Bregman wanted to be. He reportedly turned down a six year offer worth $171.5M from the Tigers which leads me to believe Bregman plans to opt-out if he has an all-star caliber season to try again at securing a $200M contract, or he just really doesn’t want to play at Comerica Park.
On top of already acquiring one of the best pitchers in the game in Garrett Crochet, it’s no secret that the Red Sox just got one of the best third baseman in the game. Over his nine years in the big leagues, Bregman has a career slash line of .272/.366/.483 which is good for an .848 OPS and a 135 wRC+. Although he’s a few years removed from them, he has multiple 7.5+ fWAR seasons and also has three consecutive 4.0+ fWAR seasons since 2022. Since 2022 among qualified third baseman, Bregman ranks sixth in home runs (74), third in OBP (.349), ninth in SLG (.449), seventh in OPS (.798), seventh in wRC+ (127), and third in fWAR (14.0). While his numbers haven’t returned to the elite levels they were at in 2018 and 2019, Bregman is still a perennial all-star candidate. Defensively, he has always been consistently above average as well, posting 11 DRS and 8 OAA since the start of 2022, and 27 DRS and 22 OAA over the course of his career.
Although he is one of the premier third base defenders, it has already been reported that Bregman will temporarily slide over to second base. The understanding at the beginning of the offseason was that if Boston signed Bregman, Rafael Devers would slide over to first base to make room for him at third. While that is likely what will eventually happen with top second base prospect Kristian Campbell on the horizon, Bregman should still be able to provide average to above average defense at second in the meantime.
What Red Sox fans should be most excited about is Bregman’s lifetime numbers at Fenway Park. In 98 career plate appearances at Fenway, Bregman owns a 1.240 OPS with seven home runs and a .375/.490/.750 slash line. Why does Bregman perform so well at Fenway? Well for one, it’s one of the friendliest ballparks to hitters, specifically right handed hitters. Bregman has always found a lot of success through a high rate of pulled fly balls. In 2024, pulled fly balls by right handed hitters at Fenway Park yielded a whopping 2.147 SLG and a 1.132 wOBA, both of which were the highest among all 30 ballparks. Not only does Bregman pull fly balls at an above average rate, but he also makes contact at elite rates. If he’s making contact while pulling fly balls, his production may shoot through the roof in Boston.
The elephant in the room here is the average annual value of this contract. Bregman will be making $40M a year on average, which to be quite frank, is an egregious overpay. However, almost every free agent contract in today’s market is an overpay. It’s just the cost teams have to be willing to pay to lock down a star. The Red Sox are entering a pivotal season for their franchise as they have been mediocre over the past three years. They had to lock down Bregman regardless of the cost if they wanted to make a statement in the AL East, which they have now done.
