The top 5 starting rotations in MLB right now
5. Tampa Bay Rays
2025 projected rotation (Fangraphs Roster Resource):
LHP Shane McClanahan
RHP Taj Bradley
RHP Ryan Pepiot
RHP Zack Littell
RHP Shane Baz
RHP Drew Rasmussen
Projected fWAR: 12.3
Kicking off the top five is the Tampa Bay Rays who were plagued by injury in 2024, but are set to enter 2025 with a fully healthy rotation. There was a few different directions I thought about going with this pick - namely teams like the Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Royals - but it was ultimately Tampa Bay’s combination of depth, ceiling, and youth that earned them a spot on my top five. Despite trading off Tyler Glasnow prior to 2024 and losing Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgery for all of 2024, the Rays still managed to be one of the better staffs in the league. They collectively finished top 10 in ERA (3.82), K% (23.2), BB% (6.7), WHIP (1.21), and SIERA (3.95). It appears their ace McClanahan will be ready by Opening Day which completely changes the dynamic of their rotation. Over his three MLB seasons, he has logged a 3.02 ERA which ranks 11th in baseball since the start of 2021. Drew Rasmussen will also return to the rotation after serving in a relief role late in 2023 following his recovery from Tommy John surgery, where he posted a 2.83 ERA and a 1.35 FIP over 28.2 innings. Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot are both seemingly on the cusps of breakout seasons after having strung together solid stretches of starts in 2024, while Shane Baz also showed some glimpses of what he’s capable of over 14 starts. On top of all of this, Zack Littell is still slated to serve in a starting role which can give the Rays the flexibility to deploy a six man rotation to help prioritize health. If this rotation stays healthy, it without a doubt has the potential to be the best in all of baseball.
4. Atlanta Braves
2025 projected rotation:
LHP Chris Sale
RHP Reynaldo Lopez
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach
RHP Grant Holmes
RHP Ian Anderson
Projected fWAR: 11.4
Headed into 2024, Spencer Strider ranked as the top pitcher on my MLB top 100, but quickly joined the Tommy John list after just two starts. Despite losing Strider, Atlanta’s rotation was still a bright spot in what ended up being a down year for the Braves based off of what they accomplished over the last couple of seasons. Chris Sale was the anchor of the staff, but it was Reynaldo Lopez who happened to be the biggest surprise. Lopez came over from the White Sox in the offseason as a closer converting to a starter, which paid off in dividends for the Braves. Lopez looked like a Cy Young candidate, and if he had not missed about a month of time, his name would have been right up there with his teammate Chris Sale in the conversation. Minimum 100 IP, Lopez finished 2nd in ERA (1.99) and 7th in FIP (2.92). Another surprise was in fact the NL Cy Young winner, Chris Sale. Sale had not thrown more than 150 innings in a season since 2018, and entering his age 35 season, a lot of baseball fans wondered if he ever would again. Fortunately for both Sale and the Braves, he logged 177 innings of some of his best pitching of his career, racking up 6.4 fWAR which led all pitchers and was his highest mark since 2017. While it was the veteran that anchored the rotation, the rookie Spencer Schwellenbach served as an excellent arm out of the third spot in the rotation, posting a 3.35 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, and a 20.8 K-BB%. The plan is for Spencer Strider to return sometime early in 2025, so if those three guys can continue to contribute at a high level upon Strider’s arrival, you’re looking at a very productive rotation.
3. Seattle Mariners
2025 projected rotation:
RHP Logan Gilbert
RHP Luis Castillo
RHP George Kirby
RHP Bryce Miller
RHP Bryan Woo
Projected fWAR: 13.4
Perhaps the youngest and most exciting rotation in baseball belongs to the Seattle Mariners. When it comes to consistency across the board, the Mariners have it. All five of their pitchers slated to be in the rotation in 2025 threw at least 100 innings in 2024 and posted a sub-4 ERA, a sub-4 FIP, a sub-1.20 WHIP, and a 20.0+ K%. Only one of them are over the age of 30 (Luis Castillo, 32), while the other four are still under the age of 28. If those numbers don’t speak to some crazy projection, I don’t know what does. As a group, they led the league in ERA (3.38), WHIP (1.03), and K-BB% (18.7), while finishing 3rd in FIP (3.64) and 4th in fWAR (15.2). They also happened to throw the most innings, tossing 942 and also logged the most quality starts with 92. Those 92 quality starts are the 2nd highest by a rotation in a single season since the start of 2020. On a production rate basis, this was the best starting rotation in baseball. Why not rank them as the best? Well, beside Luis Castillo, no pitcher in this rotation has more than four seasons under their belt. While the youthfulness of this staff makes this group exciting and gives them the ability to throw a lot of innings, I think experience is very important as well - more so for pitchers than hitters. Postseason experience is also king and this group has minimal playoff innings among them. I would love for the Mariners to change that this year. One more caveat is that it’s a possibility one of these arms may be traded before the start of the season. However, even with the absence of one of these pitchers, this is still arguably a top five rotation.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
2025 projected rotation:
RHP Zack Wheeler
LHP Christopher Sanchez
RHP Aaron Nola
LHP Ranger Suarez
LHP Jesus Luzardo
Projected fWAR: 16.0
My favorite rotation in baseball by far belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. This is large in part due to its dominance in recent postseasons, led exclusively by Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez. Since the 2022 postseason, Phillies starters have thrown 172 postseason innings, which is the most in baseball in that time frame and over 40 more than the 2nd place team. Over those 172 innings, they own a 2.97 ERA, a 3.27 FIP, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 21.4 K-BB%. Simply put, on a rate basis the Phillies have a Cy Young caliber rotation in the postseason. Regardless of what they do in the regular season, that is enough for me to consider them a top five rotation in baseball. And yes, they have been very good in the regular season as well, and that is before they added Jesus Luzardo this offseason to round out the rotation. In 2024, Philly ranked top 10 in ERA (3.81), FIP (3.88), WHIP (1.22), K-BB% (16.1), SIERA (3.83), and fWAR (16.0). As I said regarding the Mariners - experience is very important when it comes to pitching, and the Phillies have a lot of that between Wheeler and Nola. Wheeler will be turning 35 during the 2025 season, but he only seems to be getting better and better with age, and with no signs of decline. Nola’s numbers have fluctuated a lot more than Wheeler’s over the past three years, but he’s still a guy that you can pencil in for 180 quality innings a year. On top of that, Christopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez continue to get better year to year. Sanchez just casually put up a 4.7 fWAR season, and Suarez was looking like a Cy Young caliber pitcher in the first half of 2024. Luzardo comes with a question mark after a down year that ended three months early due to injury, but with the track record of success of the other four guys, anything Luzardo can provide this rotation is just the cherry on top.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 projected rotation:
LHP Blake Snell
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
RHP Tyler Glasnow
RHP Tony Gonsolin
RHP Dustin May
RHP Shohei Ohtani
Projected fWAR: 15.8
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone as the Dodgers own without a doubt, the deepest starting rotation in baseball. If Shohei Ohtani returning to the mound in 2025 wasn’t enough, they also added two time Cy Young award winner, Blake Snell. That’s on top of already having two more guys with Cy Young ceilings in Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are also set to return to the staff after both having missed the entirety of 2024 due to injury. And God forbid Roki Sasaki is added to this list. Given Gonsolin and May can return to form, opposing teams will be facing five, maybe six, all-star arms. And who knows, maybe they re-sign Clayton Kershaw to a farewell deal and he provides some level of production. The Dodgers are your defending champs, and that was without a lot of the depth they have going into 2025, which speaks to the level of their coaching staff and front office to put guys in the right positions to succeed. With the firepower they have now, there is no telling how good this staff can be. Health is the only kryptonite for this team, and even then, they would have to take a huge hit to feel any sort of effect given they have six guys slated to start this year.
