3 breakout candidates for the 2025 MLB season
With spring training roughly a month away, it’s almost that time for baseball fans to start putting out their predictions for the upcoming season. Predicting breakout candidates is often the most fun part about preseason, but also one of the harder tasks. I figured I would try my hand at predicting a few. I really like to focus on younger players that really haven’t laid much framework to forecast what their big league career will look like. It’s easy to pick a player that has put together a number of decent seasons that has yet to become an all-star. But it’s a completely different task projecting a player to have an all-star caliber season without much big league time under their belt. With that being said, here are three players I believe can have a true breakout season with all-star upside.
Ivan Herrera, C, STL
2024: 72 G, 259 PA, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 5 SB, .301/.372/.428, 127 wRC+, -7 DRS, 2.1 fWAR
2025 Fangraph’s projection: 99 G, 392 PA, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 5 SB, .258/.355/.401, 116 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR
The Cardinals have some logistical things to work through at the catching position after it was announced by their POBO (President of Baseball Operations) John Mozeliak in November that Willson Contreras would be moving to first base full time in 2025. St. Louis has two big league options at the moment to take his place, but both without a long period of time spent behind the plate at the Major League level - that being Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera. For Herrera, his 72 games and 259 PAs was the most he has played in a season since debuting in 2022, splitting time with Pedro Pages while Contreras was injured. While Herrera got more at-bats than Pages, Pages logged more time behind the plate, which would lead you to believe Pages may step into that full time catcher role. I wouldn’t be so quick to say that after Herrera showed some glimpses of solid production in 2024.
When Herrera entered the Cardinals’ system in 2017 at the age of 17, there were high hopes for him to be the heir to Yadier Molina. While no one will ever be Yadi defensively, Herrera has shown he can be productive from the offensive side of the ball, posting an impressive slash line of .301/.372/.428, with an .800 OPS and a 127 wRC+ in his age 24 season. Among catchers with at least 200 PAs, his OBP, OPS, and wRC+ all ranked within the top five. His 2.1 fWAR landed him above established catchers such as J.T. Realmuto and Travis D’Arnaud despite much less playing time. While his .370 BABIP in 2024 may point to some regression over a full season, it’s important to note his above average xBA (.293), xSLG (.453), and xwOBA (.366), all of which were up from his averages from 2022 and 2023. His xwOBA led all catchers while his xBA and xSLG both ranked in the top 10. He also possesses above average patience and discipline at the plate as well as above average contact numbers, resulting in a solid 0.47 BB/K. Over a full season, I think these metrics result in some solid overall numbers for Herrera.
The question mark in Herrera’s game is his defense. In 469 innings behind the plate in 2024, he had -7 DRS and -6 rSB (stolen bases runs saved above average). His framing and blocking numbers were both league average which helps, but a lack of ability to throw out runners over the course of 1,000 innings can pose quite the risk, definitely in today’s age. For that reason, I believe it’s still likely that Herrera and Pages continue to split time behind the plate. However, because of Herrera’s production with the bat, we should see the Cardinals platooning him in the DH role with guys like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker a lot more when he’s not catching. If he’s given more opportunities to play, I like for Herrera to put up a great season.
2. Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX
2024: 134 G, 557 PA, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 19 SB, .253/.325/.415, 110 wRC+, 14 DRS, 2 OAA, 2.9 fWAR
2025 Fangraph’s projection: 144 G, 623 PA, 21 HR, 80 RBI, 18 SB, .264/.341/.446, 123 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR
This pick feels a little more down to earth than the Ivan Herrera pick as Langford is probably on the radar of a lot of baseball fans to breakout in 2025. He was projected to be one of the top rookies in 2024 after breaking camp with the Rangers just 9 months after being drafted 4th overall in the 2023 MLB draft. While he wasn’t an AL rookie of the year finalist, Langford still put up a decent season for a player that only played roughly three months of minor league baseball. His call-up may have been a little premature, but I’m in favor of getting top prospects into big league action as soon as they are physically and mentally prepared. Langford dealt with some growing pains and injuries early on, but his second half of 2024 was a completely different story.
In his first two months of the season, Langford was actually one of the worst hitters in baseball, putting up a 64 wRC+ and a line of .222/.288/.286, good for a .573 OPS over 139 PAs. That was pre-hamstring strain, which left him off the field for three and a half weeks. From June 1st through the end of the season, he posted a 125 wRC+ with a much more impressive slash line of .263/.337/.458, good for a .796 OPS over 418 PAs. In that time frame, Langford was a top 10 outfielder by fWAR (3.0), and a top 20 outfielder by wRC+. In the month of September Langford really tore it up, hitting 8 HRs and posting a .610 SLG with a 180 wRC+, all of which ranked top five among all qualified MLB hitters. It was really just a matter of getting accustomed to big league pitching for Langford. During his resurgence, he dropped his 29.7 O-Swing% to 26.0, raised his Z-Swing% from 62.6 to 66.8, and raised his 0.37 BB/K to 0.47. With the discipline adjustments came more quality contact as well, raising his 6.2 barrel% to 10.3 and raising his 40.2 hardhit% to 44.5.
There is a lot of upside in Langford’s game headed into 2025, and I believe he can surpass his projections. I think he’s a lock to hit the 20 HR/20 SB mark, and he’s potentially a 30 HR/30 SB type of player in the future. Paired with his above average defense and versatility in the outfield, I wouldn’t say it’s out of the realm of possibility to say he can produce 5-6 fWAR in 2025 and beyond. If everything clicks for the young outfielder this year, we’re looking at one of the better breakout seasons in baseball.
3. Joe Boyle, RHP, TB
2024: 13 G, 47.2 IP, 6.42 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.72 WHIP, 7.1 K-BB%, 0.3 fWAR
2025 Fangraph’s projection: 41 G, 57.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.43 WHIP, 10.5 K-BB%, 0.1 fWAR
I didn’t feel as if this would be a proper breakout prediction without a complete shot in the dark with a given player, so that’s exactly what Joe Boyle is for me here. Boyle got a cup of coffee at the big league level in Oakland in 2023 where he showed some promise, posting a 1.69 ERA over 16 innings and three starts. If you take a look at the numbers, it all came crashing down when he got some regular playing time in 2024 with the Athletics. His control is overwhelmingly the main issue in his game. He managed a 17.7 BB% which was very easily the highest BB% in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings. To put into perspective just how wild that number is, the difference between him and the 2nd worst is 3.0, the same difference between 2nd worst and 41st worst. Boyle has always been a pitcher that walked a lot of hitters. Ironically enough, his 17.7 BB% is just about in line with his career average at the pro level, having posted a 17.0+ BB% in each of his four seasons in the minors since 2021. In 2023, he showed a glimpse of what he could look like if he fixes his control.
In his short time at the big league level in 2023, Boyle actually walked only 8.3% of hitters while striking out 25% and yielding just a .145 BAA and a 0.81 WHIP. He found success from producing an above average chase rate and inducing a lot of soft contact. For some reason in 2024, he couldn’t produce the same amount of chase. His chase% was 19.1% which was 1st percentile. This isn’t a command issue as much as it is a control issue. I believe Boyle has the type of stuff to get swings and misses in the zone and has already shown an ability to induce soft contact. Boyle probably believes that as well, but with how bad his control is, hitters can deploy a much more patient approach against him. If there’s any pitching lab that can fix Boyle - it’s the Rays. He has drawn a lot of comparisons to a young Tyler Glasnow who the Rays also worked wonders on, turning him into the pitcher he is today.
I can see Boyle’s season going a number of different ways. Boyle’s stuff is what gives him upside. His fastball can move up to 102 mph while he also has a wipeout slider he throws roughly 40% of the time, along with a solid curveball he flashes from time to time. That type of stuff is what back end of bullpens are made of. However, if he ends up in the bullpen and is continuing to “let it fly” as we like to say about relievers, he might not find the control he’s looking for. If the Rays do find a way to fix his control and hold on to the elite pitch metrics, he can be an elite reliever. On the flip side, I can see a reality where the Rays have him start games at AAA before being called up to fill in for an injured pitcher. When starting, he can back off of the high-end velocity and really focus on producing weak contact in the zone which he has shown he can do. I think both options pose high risk and high reward. Given the Rays have a lot of success with reclamation projects and that Boyle has some of the best stuff in the league, I’m leaning towards high reward. Regardless, it will be interesting to see the approach the Rays take with him.
