Age: 20 (06/29/2004)

Birthplace: Alexandria, VA

High School: Franklin HS - Franklin, TN

Height/Weight: 6’6” 223 lbs

Year: Junior

AJ Russell is another recent victim of Tommy John surgery but surprisingly made a very quick return to action compared to the typical 12-18 moth rehab and recovery period. The last pitch he threw before hitting the injured list came on May 26, 2024 and he just made his return in a one inning stint on February 25th. He seemingly picked up right where he left off as well, striking out all three batters he faced.

Russell burst onto the scene in 2023 as a freshman where he posted a dominant 0.89 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, and a 38.1 K-BB% over 30.1 innings exclusively as a reliever. That performance leveraged Russell into a starting role prior to the injury in his sophomore season.

There isn’t a whole lot of recent data on Russell due to him having only logged one inning of work thus far, but what we can gather from the data is that Russell is still one of the nastiest pitchers in college baseball. Despite standing in at 6’6”, Russell has a pretty low release height as he really sinks into his delivery which grants him more access to power through his lower body. Russell also releases the ball from a three quarters arm slot which seems to have become the norm for high profile pitching prospects. I find his delivery to draw a lot of similarities to Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies.

He features a three pitch mix which is primarily headlined by his 70 grade fastball which is arguably the best pitch in college baseball, and a 60 grade slider. In his brief one inning stint earlier this week, Russell averaged 95 mph on his fastball and topped out at 97 mph. Prior to the injury, he ran it up to 98 mph, so it’s safe to say his velocity has returned. The offering averages 16 inches of IVB and 14 inches of HB, making it a true outlier fastball in terms of movement. Paired with his lower release height and velocity, the VAA on the pitch is -4.1, the best mark among the five pitchers on this list. If he’s consistenly locating it at the top of the zone, it can be a real nightmare for both right handed and left handed hitters.

His slider sits in the mid-80s and reaches the upper-80s from time to time. It’s another high spin pitch and produces more horizontal break than depth. It’s his pitch to induce chases out of the zone, but it finds success in the zone as well.

His changeup is a work in progress, as seems to be the case with multiple pitchers on this list, but his fastball/slider combination may have the type of upside to where he can ditch the changeup and exclusively throw those two pitches. There have been some durability concerns dating back to his freshman year, so if he can’t adjust to a starter’s workload, he certainly has the makings of a back-end, high profile reliever.