Age: 20 (03/21/2004)

Birthplace: Tampa, FL

High School: Jesuit HS - Tampa, FL

Height/Weight: 6’1” 188 lbs

Year: Junior

The funky lefty out of Florida Sate is the Baseball Focus #1 pitcher in the 2025 MLB Draft . Arnold is coming off of a strong sophomore campaign in which he earned First Team All-ACC and First Team All-American honors by multiple outlets. 2024 was Arnold’s first season as a full time starter as he worked as both a starter and a reliever as a freshman in 2023. In his 105.2 innings of work last year, he posted a 2.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a 29.6 K-BB%, proving not only that he can handle a bigger workload, but that he also has the attributes of a valuable starting pitcher.

Arnold features a three pitch mix, and all three pitches are plus offerings. He throws a four-seam fastball, slider, and a changeup. His fastball and slider are both 60 grade pitches, while his changeup is a 50 grade pitch.

Although it’s a 60 grade offering, his fastball isn’t overpowering by any means. It’s the characteristics of the pitch that make it unique. It sits around 93 mph and tops out at 96 mph, which is still above average at the college level, but doesn’t compare with the top pitching prospects from last year’s draft such as Chase Burns and Hagen Smith who were pumping triple digits at times. However, Arnold has a deceptive delivery and comes from a lower release point which produces a -4.4 VAA (vertical approach angle). Because of his arm slot, the pitch comes in at a much flatter angle, making it difficult for opposing hitters to get the bat on plane with the pitch. On top of that, it also has a ton of arm-side run, producing 16.8 inches of horizontal break. For reference, the MLB average horizontal break on four-seam fastballs in 2024 was 7.7 inches and only seven pitchers had more movement on their fastballs than Arnold.

He uses his slider roughly the same amount as his fastball and it comes in anywhere from 83 to 86 mph. It’s less of a traditional slider and more like a sweeper, producing a minimal amount of vertical break and a lot of horizontal break (-13.8), which is a nightmare specifically for left handed hitters. He consistently gets whiffs at nearly a 50% clip on the pitch.

Although the changeup is just a 50 grade offering, it is quite the outlier in terms of characteristics. It comes in nearly at the same speed as the slider, so roughly 10 mph off the fastball as is usually the goal, but produces way more drop than your typical changeup. It has -8.5 inches of vertical break compared to the MLB average of 5.3. With the arm-side run, it almost works as a curveball moving in the opposite direction, which certainly serves as an equalizer for right handed batters. He has used a sinker as well, but it doesn’t get too much separation off the fastball. However, it can be developed into a solid bridge between the fastball and changeup.

Paired with his control and command that yielded just a 5.8 BB% in 2024, his unique arsenal and ability to handle longer outings makes Arnold the best college pitching prospect in the 2025 MLB Draft class. He couldn't have asked for a better start to his junior campaign thus far as he has thrown 11 scoreless innings while allowing just three baserunners.